Mathematical Biology Seminar

Speaker: Emily Blevins

Title: Beyond Ross–Macdonald: How Heterogeneous Risk, Space, and Mobility Reshape Malaria Prevalence

Abstract: Malaria, caused by the Plasmodium falciparum parasite and transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths each year and remains a critical global health threat. The foundational Ross-Macdonald framework established a vital baseline for vector-borne disease models by assuming homogeneity. However, real-world malaria transmission is driven by intense heterogeneity. Local vector densities, individual behavioral risks, and host mobility patterns alter transmission dynamics, and repeated exposure leads to acquired immunity, which mediates disease virulence and drives asymptomatic cases.

In this presentation, we begin by outlining the biological framework of malaria transmission and the classical Ross-Macdonald model, along with a discussion of its underlying assumptions. Then, we present a multi-patch framework that incorporates individual, spatial, and short-term movement heterogeneities to quantify how these complexities deviate from homogeneous baseline predictions. We conclude with ongoing field experiments in a lizard malaria system designed to test these predictions, and future directions including a time-since-infection model, host-limited biting, and acquired immunity.