HMSC Science on Tap: Higher Water, Bigger Waves, Changing Shores: El Niño on the Oregon Coast

Speakers: Peter Ruggeio, Professor, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University; and Jonathan Allan, Coastal Geomorphologist, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries

Topic: For more than four decades, El Niño events have shaped our understanding of coastal hazards along the Oregon coast. Previous major El Niño winters have been associated with elevated water levels, anomalous wave conditions, shoreline erosion, and widespread coastal impacts, establishing a strong link between Pacific climate variability and coastal hazards of erosion and flooding. With forecasts suggesting the potential development of very strong El Niño conditions during the coming winter, we are once again evaluating the vulnerability of beaches, dunes, infrastructure, and coastal communities to climate-driven coastal hazards. In this talk we will discuss what has occurred in previous events and what we might expect for this upcoming winter. We will also synthesize several recent studies tracing how large-scale climate variability translates into coastal hazards and how we plan on using the developing 2026–27 El Niño to test our hypotheses.