Unlocking the Presidential Puzzle(s) with Mara Faccio
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The Purdue University Research Center in Economics invites you to our November economic policy luncheon. Please register to join us for:
Unlocking the Presidential Puzzle(s) with Mara Faccio
11:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. Eastern
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Rawls Hall, 3rd Floor Commons
100 S. Grant Street
Purdue’s West Lafayette campus
Since 1927, the U.S. stock market has done substantially better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans, with the difference in annual stock market returns between the two parties averaging around 10% per year. This well-documented pattern has been dubbed the "presidential puzzle."
Annual GDP growth shows a similar partisan gap. Faccio confirms this pattern using recent data. Before 1927, however, she finds that the "puzzle" reverses. Using data going back as far as 1791, she shows that annual stock market returns were almost 6% higher per year under Republican (or conservative) presidents. Annual GDP growth was 1.7% higher. Having examined competing explanations, Faccio concludes that the two opposing "puzzles" share one common source: investor risk aversion at election time. Whichever party won the election when risk aversion was high enjoyed higher subsequent returns.
Mara Faccio is the Daniels School’s Tom and Patty Hefner Chair in Finance. Her primary research interests are in international finance and corporate finance. She is one of the most highly cited finance scholars. The PURCE faculty affiliate was among Stanford University and Elsevier’s top 2% of most influential scientists in the world for 2025.
Space is limited for PURCE luncheons, and registration is required. Please register by noon on Friday, November 6. We look forward to seeing you in Rawls Hall for a catered lunch, networking, and a Q&A with Faccio following her talk.
Parking is available in the nearby Grant Street Parking Garage.
Reach out to us with any questions at [email protected] and (765) 494-3782.
Learn more about our research center at business.purdue.edu/centers/purce.
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