Neil Thompson: Forecasting AI’s Impact on Human Expertise and the Future of Work

AI is advancing rapidly at the cognitive tasks that make up knowledge work, raising fears among firms, policymakers, and, not least, workers of a “China shock” for white-collar jobs. Neil Thompson will present new research on whether those fears are warranted. The research asks which tasks AI will take over and what that means for the expertise required in the work that remains. The time a skilled person needs for a task strongly predicts whether AI can do it, and AI is handling ever-longer tasks.

Building on this pattern, the research forecasts how AI will change the skills, entry barriers, and wages of occupations across the pay spectrum through 2030. Neil will also share findings from MIT FutureTech’s Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides study, which draws on 60,000+ evaluations by experienced workers and shows AI capabilities rising steadily and broadly across tasks rather than in sudden jumps.